In order to make a prediction about the sea level rise worldwide, we looked for different factors which are known causes for this trend and collected chronological data on a large time span to make the prediction more reliable.
The three factors used to predict sea level rise are the following:
We performed a multi-classifier regression using the Numpy library on the three datasets and we created a model able to perform predictions on the sea level rise for future years.
Our prediction is that by 2100 the sea level is gonna increase by 75 centimetres, reaching a total increase of 1 meter since 1945.
It is interesting to note that the other factors we took in account when performing our linear regression make our prediction make the prediction diverge by the current progression of sea level raise.
The impact of temperature increase, ice melting and CO2 production seems to play a major role in the increasing rate of sea level rise.
We compared our predictions with those which were formulated by scientific experts in the environmental and climatological research fields.
This is especially relevant since our main purpose was to show how some alarming trends could be spotted even by common people with basic knowledge in the field and some data processing skills.
Researcher's forecasts varies widely, going from 20 to around 80 cm for 2100.
In this sense, our forecast is aligned with official predictions. The NASA Empirical Projection in which gas emissions decline after a peak, the RCP 2.6, seems to be the most consistent with our findings, forecasting an increase in sea level of approximately 0.75 meters by the end of the century.
Since Trieste is a coastal city, we decided to consider the consequences of our predicted sea level rise on the city of Trieste.
After an evaluation of socioeconomical activities in the areas touched by the sea level increase, we denoted x critical aspects which will be heavily damaged:
The main challenges we faced during the creation of our project are undoubtedly the creation of a valid model which could take in account many different factors and the search for specific databases that fitted our needs.
SpaceApps is a NASA incubator innovation program.
